Hot Take Jake's 4 fantasy football busts that you should be avoiding in drafts!

So yesterday I provided four fantasy players that I think will excede expectations. Today I am will share four guys who I would avoid or limit my expectations for their production this season. For the record these guys are not irrelavant in fantasy football, I would suggest consider some other players when these four guys are at the top of your draft board.

Diontae Johnson- Diontae Johnson is the new wide receiver 1 in Carolina for second year quarterback Bryce Young. Johnson isn’t the only fresh face as former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now the head coach following an abysmal 2023-2024 season. It would be a surprise if things got much worse for the Panthers this season. Bryce Young is primed for a year two leap, Johnson and fellow wideout Adam Theilan have the potential to be a good wideout duo, and Canales could provide a fresh spark on the offensive side of the ball. Despite these aspects trending in the right direction I don’t believe this increases Diontae Johnson’s fantasy value. For one Johnson has been the wide receiver 1 in Pittsburgh for several years now and has not been able to consistently utilize his talent and opportunity into fantasy stardom, despite the potential. In fact it seems that Johnson has slowly been declining with each season. Johnson has produced some really good fantasy seasons and for a while had one of the strongest floors in fantasy football, however that floor is not as constant as it once was. Johnson has never been one to produce consecutive games of 25 points or more but his fantasy floor was what provided his value. I view Johnson as a boom or bust pick this year, and I would avoid the headache of trying to guess when those booms are. I actually like Johnson's average draft position as you can grab him closer to the middle of drafts. However, I would not  expect Johnson to play above his average draft position. He’ll be solid for where you draft him, but he won’t be a steal by any means. At best I believe he is a week to week starter based on the matchup the Panthers have that given week.

Jaylen Warren- Despite being considered the number two running back in Pittsburg, Jaylen Warren has established a role for himself in the Steelers offense despite sharing the backfield with former 1st round pick and 5 star Najee Harris. Following his rookie year Harris looked to be on the verge of becoming a fantasy superstar while also being one of the NFL’s young rising running backs. However, Harris has never been able to replicate the success of his rookie year and within the last couple of seasons, Warren has been too good to keep off the field. Despite this season I believe that Najee Harris is the Steelers running back to select in fantasy drafts and Warren is someone you can leave on the board and hope to scope up in later rounds. My first reason is that I don’t believe that Warren is 100% healthy. He has recently been hampered by a hamstring injury and I don’t think he’ll be fully recovered by week 1. It seems like Warren will suit up for the first game of the season but an injury could limit his potential. Hamstring injuries can also be tricky and linger for weeks at a time, or even across a whole season. The second reason is because Najee Harris finds himself in a contract year and when money is on the line, dudes start playing. Take Ceedee Lamb as an example last season. With financial incentives on the line for Harris, I predict him having a season reminiscent of his first in the league. 

Brain Thomas Jr.- Brian Thomas Jr. was the Jacksonville Jaguars first round selection in this year's draft and many expect Thomas Jr. to immediately fill the role left by Calvin Ridley. Thomas is a high upside wide receiver who could very well be Jacksonville’s receiver of the future. I actually viewed Thomas Jr. as underrated coming out of the draft, due to the fact that he played alongside a future top 5 NFL draft pick in Malik Nabers. Thomas Jr. should bring an expansive route tree with him but many are excited by his big play potential because he is such a great deep threat. He’s even paired with one of the NFL's best deep ball throwers in Trevor Lawrence. However, I do think the learning curve to the NFL will be evident for Thomas Jr. early on in the season. NFL cornerbacks are bigger, stronger, and faster than in college, and the pace of the game will increase. I am also weary of how big of an involvement the Jaguars will give Thomas in the first half of the season. Jacksonville also added Gabe Davis via free agency and Christian Kirk returns from an injury that cut his previous season short. Frankly, Kirk is the wide receiver for the Jaguars that I am targeting in drafts. Kirk is a savvy veteran, has shown he can produce a solid fantasy floor, and he has the most rapport with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. However, Thomas Jr. is still one of this year's draft's best late round fliers. I believe he has boom or bust potential early on in the season but could put up producing consistent numbers later on in the season. If you are willing to be patient with Thomas Jr. and stash him on your bench, go for it, but limit expectations early on and be prepared for some low scoring weeks.

Luke Musgrave- Luke Musgrave, the second year tight end out of Oregon State, seems to be the most likely starting tight end in Green Bay. Musgrave stands tall at 6’6 but his speed and athleticism is what jumps out for a player of his size. I’ve seen Musgrave going very late in drafts and in some instances he is still on the waiver wire, and this season, I think that's where he belongs. The reason being that there are a lot of pass catchers in Green Bay and a lot of high potential. Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Christian Watson are fighting for targets in the wide receiver room. The Packers added bellcow running back Josh Jacobs and drafted tailback Marshawn Lloyd from USC, who is a solid pass catcher for a running back. Finally Musgrave faces competition from fellow 2nd year tight end Tucker Kraft. Kraft even filled in for Musgrave last season when Musgrave went down with injury, and Kraft really shined with his opportunities. Green Bay has a high powered offense, an ascending young quarterback with elite potential, and a legitimate shot at a playoff spot but, there are just too many mouths to feed in Green Bay at the moment. I would try and identify some other late round fliers or draft a solid backup at tight end or quarterback in the case you need a replacement.